Cold War Redux?
For years I’ve been saying that Russia fully intends a return to the Cold War era, and I’ve been pooh-poohed by those who claim to be in the know.
So, when I saw today’s headlines reporting that Putin intends to aim missiles at Europe, I thought surely I must have managed to slip back in time while I slept. But, no. (Or is that, nyet?) It’s still 2007.
Nevertheless, the U.S. intends to set up a missile-defense system in Eastern Europe, and Vladimir Putin has replied by saying that Russia will in turn aim its own missiles at Europe, too. Not surprisingly, China is siding with Russia.
The question is: do they mean it and, if so, how far is this going to go? Apparently, not very far. In the immediate wake of Putin’s remarks the Kremlin did some swift backpedaling.
The Kremlin’s spin doctors are trying hard to play down remarks made by Mr Putin about aiming his country’s missiles at Europe. They claim that he was giving a hypothetical answer to a hypothetical question about America’s planned missile-defence installations in Eastern Europe. But the damage to Russia’s image as a friendly country has been done. Russian officers and officials have grumbled before about America’s sometimes cavalier attitude to strategic security. This time the combative words came from the top.
Meanwhile, President Bush insists the situation with Russia is not tense.
There must be something in the White House’s water.
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I said a long time ago Putin is dangerously insane. The guy should really be higher on our radar.
I agree. Yet for some reason it seems the past two administrations have been intent on portraying US-Russian relations as warm and cozy. I hardly think, given Russia’s actions prior to and since the war, that we’re ready to hold hands and sing Kum By Ya but that’s how both Clinton and Bush seem to think.
That’s crazy logic (Putin’s).
“You’re setting up a missile defense system in Europe? Well, that means I’ll start aiming at it! That’ll show you!”
At least the Soviet logic made some sense; I mean, it’s not crazy to think that Soviet-satellite Eastern Europe might be defended by deterrents like aiming missiles at Paris and London.
But modern Russia doesn’t have Eastern Europe (they don’t even have the Baltics!) to “defend”.
The real problem with Putin’s alleged logic is that missile defense systems have no offensive value at all; the only way they’re a “danger” is if they upset a deterrence structure - and there isn’t one in Europe to destabilise.
Given the maintenance nightmares and instability of Russia post-1991, it’s uncertain if much of their nuclear force even functions.
I think the Cold War in the sense of MAD and worldwide proxy war is permanently over (the latter if only because apart from its immediate neighbors, modern Russia has little influence in comparison to the USSR); but a Cold War in the sense of an antagonistic Russia taking what it can and blustering, that might be back.